Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Will the Blue Jays have two 30+ HR hitters?


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I came across a really cool website called HR Pace.com, which basically takes all the guess work out of calculating how many home runs and RBI’s that a hitter is on pace for. Taking a look at the numbers below, the Blue Jays have two potential 30+ HR hitters in Aaron Hill and Adam Lind.

Hitter HR Pace
Aaron Hill 40.11
Adam Lind 34.29
Alex Rios 18.58
Lyle Overbay 18.38
Rod Barajas 16.71
Vernon Wells 15.53
Marco Scutaro 12.38
Kevin Millar 9.91
Jose Bautista 5.51

Incredibly, Aaron Hill averages a home run per 17.42 at bats. That leads all second baseman in the league and ranks in the Top 10 players in the MLB in HR Pace. Coming in a close second on the Blue Jays, Adam Lind averages a home run about once every 18.14 at bats.

Even if Hill and Lind trail off a little bit in the final eight weeks of the season, they should put themselves in a good position to clear at least 30 home runs. The last time the Blue Jays had two 30+ HR hitters on the team was back in 2006 when Troy Glaus hit 38 home runs and Vernon wells hit 32.

7 comments:

  1. With everything that's gone wrong with this season, Hill and Lind's extraordinary run has been really overshadowed.

    Two 30 HR 100 RBI guys in the same season? We would have been thrilled to hear of such a thing before the season.

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  2. I would've been thrilled if there were ONE guy like that on the team, let alone TWO.

    I for one never would've guessed there was anyone inside the organization that could put up those kinds of numbers.

    I'm sorry that I was ever an advocate for signing Jason Giambi in the offseason.

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  3. Wow. How many would have guessed that both Lind and Hill would be on pace to hit more HR than Wells and Rios combined!

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  4. I miss the good old days of Bell and Barfield... Wells... next year!

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  5. The problem is the massive drop-off after these two guys -- I'd rather have 5 20-80 guys, which is certainly possible with this line-up. Instead we'll have 2 30-100 guys and, well, garbage. Sucks.

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  6. Oh, and it was 2006. Glaus wasn't a Jay in 2005. That 2006 team had some potential ...

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  7. I certainly never would have pegged Aaron Hill to hit 20 HR this season, that's for sure. I'm pretty certain most of us expected Vernon to hit at least 25 HR, if not more than 30.

    QJays, actually Rios is on pace for around 87 RBI which actually isn't too bad. If he can hit 18 HR, that will be about average for him.

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