Monday, November 29, 2010

Will You Accept This Arbitration Offer?


By
There will be offers, there will be rejections, and there will undoubtedly be a few people walking away from what could be the best relationship of their lives.

It will be a veritable rose ceremony for the Blue Jays impending free agents as they have until 11:59pm this Tuesday to either accept or decline salary arbitration put forth by the Blue Jays.

So who will accept a rose and who will decline one? It's a question which we'll have an answer to very soon. In the meantime, let's speculate what could happen within less than 48 hours until the arbitration deadline.

Scott Downs

Will he accept arbitration: hell no!

After the Detroit Tigers signed Joaquin Benoit to a three-year $16.5 million dollar contract, the wheels were put in motion to drive up the price of left-handed veteran Scott Downs.

He's undoubtedly out there to get a multi-year deal and become one of the highest paid free agent relievers of the 2010 offseason.

And it also doesn't hurt that Scott Downs bears a certain resemblance to the guy from the Gillette PowerGlide commercial.

Kevin Gregg

Will he accept arbitration: it's a coin flip.

Out of all the arbitration offers the Blue Jays delved out to their free agents, Gregg's is the one that I'm most unsure about.

Since they declined both his options at $4.75 and $8.75 million a piece, the Blue Jays would still be saving a boatload of cash even if Gregg does accept arbitration.

Personally I think it's in Gregg's best interest to accept arbitration and he'll probably get a salary boost to $3 million, but if his agent thinks he can land a better deal with another team, all the power to him.

The problem is there is a huge mid-tier reliever glut this offseason, and Kevin Gregg would be lucky to sign a one-year contract worth more than what Toronto would either offer him prior to arbitration or how much arbitration court deems he's worth.

Jason Frasor

Will he accept arbitration: probably.

Usually, being in the top 20 percent of your profession is a good thing. Not in Jason Frasor's case, unfortunately.

Here is where Frasor's Type A status will work against him when attempting to fish for offers from other teams.

With draft picks coveted more than ever, prospective teams are going to have a tough time being swayed to surrender two picks to sign Frasor. If they're going to sign a Type A relief pitcher, they'd probably much rather hand over two picks for an upper echelon reliever like Rafael Soriano than Jason Frasor.

That being said, I'd be glad to see JayFray back in a Blue Jays uniform in 2011. He's a phenomenal strikeout pitcher (8.4 K/9 lifetime) and can still provide some veteran back end stability to the Blue Jays bullpen.

Miguel Olivo

Will he accept arbitration: not bloody likely.

It's no secret that Alex Anthopoulos essentially acquired Miguel Olivo with intentions he would be parlayed into a draft pick.

If Olivo does accept arbitration for whatever reason, then the Blue Jays have 3 catchers to choose from ... which really isn't even a bad side effect because of the unsureness about the catcher's position for the Jays.

The free agent catcher market is shoring up pretty quickly though with John Buck and Victor Martinez off the table, so Miguel Olivo's agent is likely seeking a multi-year contract to whichever team is willing out there.

6 comments:

  1. Love the graphic!

    I'm sure you didn't mean it that way, but the team that signs Frasor only loses one pick; the second pick is in the supplemental round of course and doesn't cost them.

    I think Frasor would be attractive to a team that has already signed a higher-ranked Type A free agent in which case Frasor would cost only a later round pick. I say Frasor does not accept arbitration.

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  2. I agree with the previous poster in regards to the ranked status on Frasor. e.g. What's to stop the Yankees from going after him after they get Cliff Lee?

    Nice angle on the article though.

    Not sure if AA has actually given them roses, lol. I think Gregg would take one, and not an arbitration rose, lol.

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  3. Your photoshop skills continue to amaze me...

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  4. Anon, good point - if another team signs a higher Type A, then that negates the first rounder. Probably more likely for a team like Boston or New York who will be going after multiple top-tier free agents.

    GCM1979, it would be hilarious though if they actually had an arbitration rose ceremony. It would certainly make for great television.

    5th Starter, thanks sir. My original draft just had the normal Bachelor guy, but then the gears started turning and I figured who better to present the free agents with a rose than AA himself?

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  5. Tao, I wonder what the odds are in Vegas on the Olivo accept/decline. Can I take the under?

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